Today will be a trading day for the history books, and we have already seen
sub-$30/bbl WTI; a $31.02/bbl transaction for Brent; and losses that at one
point topped 25cts/gal for refined products. And that has all occurred ahead of
a U.S. equities opening that suggests a 5% devaluation in most U.S. stocks.

At 9:15 a.m. ET, April WTI was fetching $31.94/bbl, representing a loss of
$9.34/bbl on the day, while Brent was down $10.06/bbl to $35.21/bbl. Both
contracts caught some bids in the wee hours, although those bids may have come
from traders taking quick profits on Sunday evening shorts. The market clearly
hasn't determined whether this new production war from Saudi Arabia and Russia
will exist for a matter of weeks, months or years, but price action does not
suggest that anyone sees the maelstrom surviving for just 10 days or so.

Refined products have dropped to where most U.S. wholesale numbers are likely
to ease more than 20cts/gal today.

April RBOB is a clear casualty, with $1.1535/gal reflecting a drop of
23.55cts/gal. The overnight low for RBOB was just $1.0574/gal and a number of
late 2020 months slipped below the $1/gal mark. The price carnage is sufficient
so that all but a handful of states could conceivably see sub-$2/gal gasoline
prices at the pump this month.

Diesel bottomed out at $1.0799/gal for the April contract with a presstime
number of $1.1742/gal reflecting a loss of 21.17cts/gal.

Again, the next catalyst (positive or negative) could come with the opening of
the NYSE and NASDAQ. The shaky economic backdrop is one of the three factors,
together with the Saudi/Russia price war and the fear of coronavirus
disease2019 (COVID-19) demand destruction that is influencing prices on this
crazy morning.

--Reporting by Tom Kloza, tkloza@opisnet.com; Editing by Michael Kelly,
michael.kelly3@ihsmarkit.com



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