...NICHOLAS MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF TEXAS...
...FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE TEXAS COASTS TODAY...

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 96.8
West. Nicholas is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and
this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a
turn toward the north-northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track,
the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore of the
coast of south Texas this morning and move onshore along the coast
of south or central Texas late this afternoon or this evening.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast today, and Nicholas could reach the
northwest Gulf coast as a hurricane.  Weakening is anticipated on
Tuesday and Wednesday while Nicholas moves over land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.  NOAA buoy 42020 located southeast of Corpus
Christi, Texas, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph
(65 km/h).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the aircraft is
1002 mb (29.59 inches).

RAINFALL:  Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across
portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas through the
middle of the week. Life-threatening, flash and urban flooding
impacts are possible, especially across portions of the upper Texas
Gulf Coast near Lake Jackson and Freeport, TX

Across the rest of southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana rainfall
of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This rainfall may produce areas of
considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly
urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, there is the potential
for isolated minor to moderate river flooding.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in southern Texas through the next few hours. These conditions
will spread northward within the warning area through tonight,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area as early as this
afternoon or this evening.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 96.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Sabine Pass
* Galveston Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Sabine Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas
* Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana
* Corpus Christi Bay